Strategy
Lamar Jackson Is 29 — Is the Rushing Floor Starting to Crack?
Lamar Jackson finished QB20 in a 13-game 2025. Here's an honest look at whether it's a one-year dip or the start of a real decline.
By Kenny Flermoen · August 11, 2026
Probably not yet, but 2025 was the first season that made the question fair to ask. Jackson finished QB20 — 214.9 fantasy points in 13 games — well off the 430.4 he posted across 17 games the year before. The honest read is that both things can be partly true: a short, low-rush season, and a quarterback who is 29 and has already had other 12-game years.
The quick answer
Jackson scores a 9,273 Dynasty Value Score and projects for 293.3 half-PPR points in 2026, 17.3 per game on a 15-game slate. Both numbers sit well below his 2024 peak and above a straight copy of 2025. The Engine is treating last year as a damaged sample, not a new normal — and still not ignoring it.
What actually happened in 2025
Our season file has him at 13 games: 2,549 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 67 carries for 349 yards and 2 rushing scores. Weekly rows exist for weeks 1–4, 9–16, and 18. There is no 2025 weekly line for weeks 5–8 or week 17.
The first three weeks looked like the old version — 29.4, 26.3, and 27.0 fantasy points, including 70 rush yards in week 1. Week 4 dropped to 10.7, then the gap. After he returned, the rush package stayed small (often 2–7 carries) and several midseason weeks landed under 8 fantasy points (weeks 11, 12, 13, and 16). That is not just fewer games. It is a different per-game shape.
Year over year the rush rate is the tell. 2024: 915 yards on 139 carries in 17 games, about 54 yards a night. 2025: about 27 yards a game. Completions and passing yards fell with him — Baltimore as a team went from 4,189 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns in 2024 to 3,278 and 23 in 2025 — but Jackson's own carry count is what moved his fantasy rank to QB20.
The honest question about his body
This is not a one-off short year. Games played in our file: 16, 15, 15, 12, 12, 16, 17, 13 from 2018 through 2025. The last five seasons are 12, 12, 16, 17, 13. Running quarterbacks as a group tend to show wear earlier than pocket passers, and 2025 is the first season where his per-game rushing dropped even after you adjust for the missed weeks.
None of that means his career is turning a corner toward decline. It means the risk that has always come with a rushing-dependent quarterback is now in the box score at 29, at an age where it is fair to watch it rather than assume it away. We do not have a full injury log in the database to name every absence — the games and the rush rates are what we can stand on.
What still points in his favor
He is still listed QB1 in Baltimore on the current 2026 depth chart (as of August 11), with Tyler Huntley at QB2. Role is not the question. When he played full slates in 2023 and 2024 he scored 331.2 and 430.4 fantasy points — 16 games, then all 17, with 821 and 915 rushing yards. The 2026 Engine line (about 3,370 pass yards, 24.4 pass touchdowns, 563 rush yards) sits between those healthy years and the 13-game 2025, which is the right kind of regression: not a 2024 reprint, not a QB20 copy.
Where he stacks up against the field
Jackson sits fourth among quarterbacks on our board, just behind Baker Mayfield at 9,280 and a tier under Patrick Mahomes (9,385) and Josh Allen (9,597). Joe Burrow (9,260) and Jalen Hurts (9,220) are within about 50 points of him. That is a tight cluster near the top. The gap that opened is Jackson's own 2025 pulling him back into the pack, not everyone else jumping him.
For the ACL-recovery read on Mahomes in that same cluster, see our Patrick Mahomes dynasty write-up.
The bottom line
If you are holding Jackson, this is not the year to sell off one 13-game season. It is also not the year to pretend the rush rate did not move. His price has come down for a real reason. If you are targeting him in a trade, this is likely the cheapest window his current owner offers before a healthier 2026 either puts him back near 2023–24 or adds another short season to the pile.
Model a trade for Jackson on the Dynasty Trade Calculator — his score already reflects a discount off the 430-point peak, not a full decline. Compare the rest of the position in our Top 20 QB Dynasty Value rankings.
Join the founding waitlist
Founding leagues lock in $2.00 per player, forever. Price rises to $3.00 once the founding cohort is full.
Founding leagues also get permanent Founding Franchise status in your Vault history.
FAQ
- What's Lamar Jackson's dynasty value after his QB20 season?
- His Dynasty Value Score is 9,273 out of 10,000 — fourth among quarterbacks, in a tight cluster with Baker Mayfield (9,280), Joe Burrow (9,260), and Jalen Hurts (9,220). The 2026 Engine Projection is 293.3 half-PPR points, 17.3 per game. That is a real discount off his 2024 peak, not a full decline price.
- Why did Lamar Jackson's fantasy points drop so much in 2025?
- Volume and missed weeks. He played 13 games and scored 214.9 fantasy points (QB20). The year before he played all 17 and scored 430.4. Rushing fell from 915 yards on 139 carries to 349 on 67 — about 27 yards a game versus 54. Our weekly file has no 2025 lines for weeks 5–8 or week 17.
- Is Lamar Jackson's age starting to affect his rushing floor?
- It is a fair question for the first time, not a settled conclusion. He is 29 (born January 7, 1997). He played 12, 12, and 13 games in 2021, 2022, and 2025 after 16- and 17-game slates in 2023–24. One short season is not enough evidence on its own, but the per-game rush drop is worth watching in 2026.
- Should I trade Lamar Jackson after his QB20 finish in 2025?
- Not reflexively. He is still listed QB1 in Baltimore, with Tyler Huntley behind him. A 2026 that looks more like 2023–24 than like last year is still the base case on our board. His current price already reflects the 13-game year, so you are not likely getting a further discount by waiting.