Is T.J. Hockenson Still a Top-5 Dynasty TE?

Our model still thinks so, and the timing just got better. Kyler Murray was named the Vikings' starting quarterback over J.J. McCarthy this week, which settles the exact uncertainty that has sat on T.J. Hockenson's price since the ACL and MCL tear two years ago. We covered the quarterback move in our Murray QB1 write-up. This is the tight end half of the same news.

The quick answer

Hockenson scores a 5,381 Dynasty Value Score — fifth among tight ends — and projects for 10.2 half-PPR points per game in 2026. That score sits well above his actual 2025 finish: TE26 at 87.3 half-PPR points (51 catches, 438 yards, three touchdowns in 15 games). The model is still paying him for the 2022–2023 peak, with a clear reason the last two years fell short. He remains MIN TE1 as of August 13, with Josh Oliver behind him.

The injury that explains almost everything

Hockenson tore his ACL and MCL in Week 16 of the 2023 season on a low hit from Detroit's Kerby Joseph. He still finished that game (4 catches, 58 yards) and the year at 95 catches, 960 yards, and five touchdowns in 15 games on 127 targets — one of the best tight end paces in football. Since then: 92 catches, 893 yards, and three touchdowns across 2024 and 2025 combined (10 games, then 15). Targets never came back — 62 in 2024, 66 in 2025.

Some of that gap is recovery. Some of it is quarterback play. A limited stretch with Sam Darnold early in the return, then McCarthy's first year as a starter in 2025: 1,632 yards, 11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions in 10 games. That dragged down every pass-catcher in the offense, not just Hockenson. Next Gen Stats do not show a player who suddenly could not get open — 2025 average separation was 3.75 yards on 66 targets, with a 77% catch rate. The problem was volume, not that he stopped creating space.

Why this week's news matters

Minnesota named Murray the starter over McCarthy, ending the offseason competition. Murray has real accuracy when he is on the field, and he steps into Kevin O'Connell's play-action, motion-heavy offense — the kind of scheme that usually creates easy throwing lanes for a tight end like Hockenson. Justin Jefferson is still WR1. Hockenson is still the listed tight end.

Murray's availability is the honest caveat. Since 2022 he has played 41 of a possible 68 regular-season games (11, 8, 17, then 5). That is a risk to the passing offense as a whole, not only to Hockenson. A healthy Murray in this offense is still a clear step up from what Hockenson had throwing to him for most of the last two seasons.

The contract situation adds motivation

Hockenson took a pay cut to stay in Minnesota this offseason and reworked the deal so 2026 is the final year. That is a make-or-break season on his own team's clock — a strong year puts him back in line for a new contract, in Minnesota or elsewhere. Another down year at 29 would be harder to bounce back from at tight end. Incentive is not a projection, but it is one more reason this is not a coasting veteran.

Where he stacks up against the field

Hockenson's 5,381 DVS sits behind only Trey McBride (7,687), Brock Bowers (7,028), Sam LaPorta (6,393), and George Kittle (5,980) — and ahead of Kyle Pitts (4,729), Tyler Warren (4,559), and Mark Andrews (3,846). That is a real gap between a top-five model score and a TE26 box score. Compare the rest of the position in our Top 20 TE Dynasty Value rankings, and the injury-discounted name right above him in our LaPorta write-up.

The bottom line

If you're holding Hockenson, the quarterback news is a real reason for optimism after two rough seasons. If you're targeting him in a trade, you are buying a TE5 DVS player whose last two years look like TE26 — with the job now settled and a contract year on the calendar. That gap is the opportunity. Murray staying healthy is the risk you are also buying.

Model a trade for Hockenson on the Dynasty Trade Calculator — his score already prices a bounce-back tight end in a better quarterback room, not a 2025 recency dump.